Europe is growing older, and the number of people of working age is about to fall faster than it has in decades. Using the United Nations' latest population projections for 36 European countries, we looked at how many people will be aged 20 to 64 in 2050 compared with today, and how much migration changes the picture.

The short version

• The population aged 20 to 64 across these 36 countries is projected to fall from 434 million in 2025 to 372 million in 2050. That is 61 million fewer people, a drop of 14%. Over the previous 25 years it fell only 1.7%.
• 33 of the 36 countries are projected to shrink. In 18 of them the working-age population falls by a fifth or more. Only Ireland, Sweden and the United Kingdom grow.
• For every 100 people of working age there were 36 people aged 65 or over in 2025. By 2050 the projection is 54.
• Births minus deaths would reduce the combined population by 69 million between 2025 and 2049. Net migration adds 29 million, offsetting about 41% of that loss. Migration more than covers the natural decline in only 9 countries.

Why it is happening

Fertility is the main driver. The median fertility rate across these countries in 2025 is 1.46 children per woman, and 24 of the 36 are below 1.5. The highest is 1.74. A rate of about 2.1 is needed for a population to replace itself without migration. Meanwhile, the large generations born in the decades after the Second World War are moving into retirement, and smaller generations are replacing them in the workforce.

Where migration makes the difference

The chart below separates the two forces for each country: births minus deaths (red) and net migration (blue), both as a share of the 2025 population, with the combined change as a black diamond.

Two patterns stand out:

• Migration is a partial offset in the west and south. Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece and Austria are all projected to receive more people than they lose, but not enough to cover a natural decline of 9% to 14% of their population.
• In much of the east and south-east, both forces point down. Countries such as Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Moldova combine a natural decline with projected net emigration, so they face the largest combined losses.

The eight most populous countries

The spread is wide. France and the United Kingdom, with higher fertility and steady immigration, hold their working-age numbers roughly level. Italy and Spain would have nearly three older people for every four of working age by 2050.

What this does and does not show

• These are projections, not forecasts of fact. The UN medium variant assumes that fertility, mortality and migration follow set paths. Migration is the least predictable part. The projection assumes 29 million net arrivals over 25 years, lower than the 37 million estimated for 2000 to 2024.
• Working age is a convention. We use ages 20 to 64. People work later, retire earlier, or do not do paid work at all. A shrinking age group is not the same as a shrinking labour force, and later retirement, higher participation and productivity can all change the economic effect.
• War and displacement are only partly captured. The 2024 revision was prepared before the full course of the war in Ukraine was known. Its projections for Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and Moldova are especially uncertain. The projection shows net inflows to Ukraine and Russia, which depend on assumptions about return and settlement that may not hold.
• Definitions. "Europe" here follows the UN geoscheme and includes Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Switzerland, Norway and the United Kingdom. It covers countries with at least one million people in 2025, so 14 smaller countries and territories are left out. Kosovo is listed as the UN lists it, under Security Council resolution 1244.
• Fertility is not fate. Past projections have often missed turning points in either direction.

Method and data

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant, downloaded in October 2026 (file sets "Demographic Indicators" and "Population by 5-year age group and sex"). The working-age population is the sum of the five-year age groups from 20-24 to 60-64. The 65+ group is 65-69 and older. Natural change and net migration are summed over 2025 to 2049 and divided by the 2025 mid-year population. Years from 2024 onward are projections. Countries were selected from the UN's four European subregions (Eastern, Northern, Southern and Western Europe).